Capital Trends Game 25

I’ll openly admit I’ve not been watching the games very much recently (maybe half of them). This team has been maddeningly mediocre. Things looked so promising not so long ago, but something is different. Let’s see if there’s anything discernible in the trends to back this up.

As always any conclusions drawn are from the data. I’m not going off of what I think is happening from my subjective recollection of watching the games. There are far smarter folks than I that do that.


I guess, since the last post, things are looking a little better. Aside from that away game against the Isles. That one was ugly.

YTD_possession_game_25 rolling_possession_game_25

On the ten-game side of things they’re not looking great. The score-close metrics are the only ones that are above 50%. I bet if you take away the Buffalo game, they would be <50% in every category.

YTD_PDO_game_25 rolling_PDO_game_25

Can’t really blame everything on bad luck anymore. They’re still not getting lucky by any stretch, but there have been worse percentages for better teams.

YTD_percentages_game_25 rolling_percentages_game_25

The even strength save percentage is separating itself from the total save percentage in a hurry, and I bet you can guess why. We’ll see the breakdown of the penalty kill in a bit, but spoiler alert: it’s that. Lately though, the shooting percentage is troubling. They’re sitting at an even strength shooting percentage of 6.3% and a total shooting percentage of 7.2%. Those numbers are pretty bad. Granted the Kings have made them work…but the Caps are no Kings.

YTD_shots_game_25 rolling_shots_game_25

Something definitely looks troubling regarding the shots against allowed. Ever since their home game against Calgary, their shots against looks like Apple’s stock circa 2012. I would include the away game against Calgary as the point where things changed for the worse, but there wasn’t enough data to rely upon. Looking at the rolling data, they don’t seem to be shooting as much. If this continues, and if Mike Green stays injured, I may need to highlight his absence. It could be something telling.

YTD_ES_shots_game_25 rolling_ES_shots_game_25

Even strength shots are following the same trends. There really does seem to have been a change in systems or advice, given the stark rise in Shots against. Maybe Trotz had an overreaction to the early season defensive gaffes and is trying to force the defense to give up more shots “to the outside” vs just straight suppression.

YTD_ST_game_25 rolling_ST_game_25

Uh oh. Special teams ain’t so special anymore. Still above 100% for the year, but lately a ~90% STI is something that can bounce a team from the playoffs, provided things get chippy. And they always do.

YTD_PP_Performance_game_25 YTD_PP_Shots_game_25 rolling_PP_Performance_game_25 rolling_PP_Shots_game_25

Well it doesn’t look like the power play is the culprit to the special teams index taking a nosedive. But damn, the Caps are not drawing many penalties lately. Less than 2 per game. That could attribute to the dip in shot generation. They could be struggling to get in a rhythm on the power play. Or maybe Mike Green is good at hockey and they’re missing him in more than one area.

YTD_SH_Performance_game_25 YTD_SH_Shots_game_25 rolling_SH_Performance_game_25 rolling_SH_Shots_game_25

Ugh. That is ugly. They may not be getting penalized a lot in the very recent past, but that hasn’t mattered. They’re giving up a lot more shots than they typically do, and they’re getting worse goaltending to coincide with that perfectly shitty storm. Look no further for the cause of their two last losses. That may be hyperbole, they weren’t great in the other areas of those games either, but this is horrid.

YTD_fenwick_score_game_25 rolling_fenwick_score_game_25

Notice that really awful drop in FF% when up by 2 or more goals? Yeah, you know the cause of that? It’s because they have only had a lead of 2 or more goals once in the last 10 games. And they didn’t do well with that lead as can be seen. I’m not going to focus on that too much, because that was honestly one of their best games of the season (the win against the Isles at home). Well, it was if you discard the first 10 and last 1.5 minutes of the first period. But they’re still a woefully boring team when they have the lead. Fortunately, they haven’t had the lead a lot lately ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

YTD_fenwickfor_score_game_25 YTD_fenwickagainst_score_game_25rolling_fenwickfor_score_game_25 rolling_fenwickagainst_score_game_25

This too makes me think systems or something is different. Since the Edmonton game (game 6) they went from allowing 24 Fenwick events per 60 minutes of tied ice time, to 32.7 Fenwick events per 60 minutes of tied ice time. That’s an increase of almost 35%. That’s significant. Whatever changed, they need to undo it.

And then here are a bunch of other plots you can look through and draw your own conclusions.

YTD_corsi_score_game_25 rolling_corsi_score_game_25 YTD_corsifor_score_game_25 rolling_corsifor_score_game_25 YTD_corsiagainst_score_game_25 rolling_corsiagainst_score_game_25

And then here’s how they’re looking if you’re curious about them making the playoffs already.


I call it: bad. And now to look at 4 things in one plot!


Things have leveled out a bit. Not all in a good way. I’d expect the STI to come back up, maybe the PDO will return to give a sweet little win streak. But now there seems to be things that are systemically wrong. And the players on the ice are doing the same old Caps things (I thought Orpik was supposed to stop those – that’s why they overpaid him).


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