Trends

Capital Trends Game 54

So that Philadelphia game was…something. By something I mean something bad, very bad. Seriously, you’ll see throughout the graphs that it took just about every trend in the wrong direction. Those kinds of games suck. They suck even more when it’s to a team like Philadelphia, where they seemed to relish the opportunity to injure some of the Washington Capitals’ younger forwards. And they suck even more when the Caps had a chance to hop into a tie for first place in the division with a win. I want to add more toppings on the shit sundae that was that game by mentioning that it was also another failed attempt for the Caps to string together 4 consecutive wins. But enough about how terrible that game was.

The Caps have a nice little California road trip (with some fathers tagging along) up next. That road trip is never easy given the recent dominance of those 3 clubs. Follow that up with a tilt with the Penguins immediately after, and the Caps definitely could have used those 2 points. Oh well, let’s take a look at how the other 7 games pushed the data since the pre-ASG post.

Playoff_Pace_game_54

They’re still soundly in the playoff picture, and actually still above the 100 point pace. But after that initial little losing streak following their tear, they’ve treaded water above the 100 point pace, so it’s not all bad. The top of the Metro has gotten crowded with teams boasting similar accomplishments though. God I hope we don’t see the Rags in the first round again.

FenClose_bars_Game_54 YTD_possession_game_54 rolling_possession_game_54

Well they had been stringing some nice possession games along when looking at the bar graph above. Then Philly happened. I wish that was the last time I would say that phrase, but I’m pretty sure you’ll see it again. It’s not worth getting worked up over the precipitous fall in the score-tied Corsi and Fenwick metrics. Those tend to be pretty constrained samples and can be subject to more wild swings than something like score-adjusted Fenwick, where the Caps have done well, hovering around 55% over the last several games.

YTD_PDO_game_54 rolling_PDO_game_54

I’ve made the comment before that even with the Caps’ fall down the PDO cliff, it’s nice to see them still picking up points here and there. But PDO itself is kind of useless, so on to the shooting and save percentage breakdown!

YTD_percentages_game_54 rolling_percentages_game_54

Yikes, shooting percentage came down in a big way. But Braden (and Grubi!) have done well to keep the Caps in the games, even if their offense is sputtering a little bit.

YTD_shots_game_54 YTD_ES_shots_game_54 rolling_shots_game_54 rolling_ES_shots_game_54

It’s really painful to see what a season-low in shots on goal can do the averages. There’s even a very noticeable tick down in the season cumulative data. That’s ugly. I would say that’s even more surprising that the even strength data isn’t more pronounced than the total shots, but then I remembered how anemic the power play looked against Philly. Man I wish that game didn’t happen.

YTD_ST_game_54 rolling_ST_game_54

Special teams aren’t looking so great the past two games. Bad enough to move the needle almost a whole percent in two games. Doesn’t sound like much, but it is this late in the season.

YTD_PP_Performance_game_54 YTD_PP_Shots_game_54 rolling_PP_Performance_game_54 rolling_PP_Shots_game_54

I’m actually really surprised the PPs/game data didn’t spike up more on the Philly game since they were gifted 6 man-advantages, but that’s due the 10-games prior and averaging it out. The Caps really weren’t getting a lot of penalties called in their favor 8, 9, and 10 games back. About that shot generation though…don’t think I need to say anything. If you watched, you know.

YTD_SH_Performance_game_54 YTD_SH_Shots_game_54 rolling_SH_Performance_game_54 rolling_SH_Shots_game_54

Yay a positive! The Caps are taking less penalties and limiting shots in a much more noticeable way (if you look at the data).

YTD_fenwick_score_game_54 rolling_fenwick_score_game_54

What is this I see? The Caps are actually better over the last 10 games with a 1 goal lead than they are when tied or even when they’re down a goal? What’s happening? Cue hysteria!

YTD_corsi_score_game_54 rolling_corsi_score_game_54

Not quite as noticeable with Corsi though. Still, they’re right on 50% for CF% when up a goal. And they’re above 50% for both tied and trailing a goal. Tied is coming back down a bit though.

YTD_fenwickfor_score_game_54 YTD_fenwickagainst_score_game_54 rolling_fenwickfor_score_game_54 rolling_fenwickagainst_score_game_54

Boo that Philly game again. It’s like they didn’t want to shoot at Emery. Maybe he intimidated them, they all thought if they lit him up like last time he’d mug them, or someone else that didn’t want to fight? Or maybe they were just waiting for a shot since he was good enough to earn 3rd star last time they saw him.

YTD_corsifor_score_game_54 YTD_corsiagainst_score_game_54 rolling_corsifor_score_game_54 rolling_corsiagainst_score_game_54

Same stuff with Corsi. Although maybe just the tiniest bit muted compared to the Fenwick drop. Because, man the Caps were shooting wide of the net all day Sunday.

YTD_Total_Team_perf_game_54

Alright, there you have it. The Caps are still holding a 100+ point pace without crazy high PDO, or special teams. If we just pretend like that Philly game never happened there’s a lot to like about this team going forward.

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