Trends

2014-2015 Season Recap

This will be my last post of this year. I haven’t made my code robust to the different OT format in the playoffs, plus, the data sets are too small to really draw any conclusions. As we reflect on the data obtained over the last 82 games I just wish I had taken the time to overlay last year’s data to the trends from this year. The differences would be striking, and I think it would help to put whatever happens in the playoffs in perspective.

For an appropriately hagiographic angle, I strongly recommend reading Peter’s post over on RMNB. There are a lot of positives to take away from this season.

Anyway, let’s get on to the data.

Playoff Pacing


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There’s no real reason to include this, because we’ve known for a while that the Caps were in the playoffs. It’s just nice to look at the turning point from that Vancouver game.

Possession


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The Caps won the possession battle for the most part in their last several games. That’s a nice trend, even if it is bringing the rolling data down a bit, but that’s more of an effect of some of the better possession performances getting pushed out of the subset.

PDO & Percentages


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I think the PDO trends can tell us that the Caps are one of the teams that don’t necessarily rely on luck to surpass 100. It would appear they are a team that can drive the PDO with their strong goaltending, and their offensive talent among the forwards and defensive corps.

YTD_percentages_game_82

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Well Holtby has slid a bit as we head into the playoffs. I sure hope it’s not fatigue, because if he can’t perform for even one game, that’s a big hole for this team. And the Isles are a fast team, that will likely keep Holtby busy. I really wouldn’t expect the Caps to run a 10% shooting percentage in the playoffs. Goals get a bit rarer for the most part, so Holtby’s going to need to keep them in the series.

Special Teams: Summary


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You have to like the trend of the special teams index. Steadily climbing throughout the second half of the season. It would look like the systems are well understood by the whole team now, and that can only be a good thing.

Special Teams: Power Play


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rolling_PP_Performance_game_82

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The Caps are not where you’d want them to be with the shot generation on the man-advantage. I’m curious if we’ll see some Mike Green back on the point for the first unit in the playoffs. They’re really going to need to make the Isles pay if they give them a power play. But, hey, maybe less shots is better for Halak? We all remember what 134 shots got them against Halak…

Special Teams: Penalty Kill


YTD_SH_Performance_game_82

YTD_SH_Shots_game_82

rolling_SH_Performance_game_82

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Well, at least the Caps are looking a bit more disciplined lately. Although, they better be, because if they continue their trend with allowing shots, they’re going to need Holtby to stand on his head.

Fenwick Percentage: Score State


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rolling_fenwick_score_game_82

Nothing to report here really.  No noticeable trends, but it is good to know that the Caps are closer to a 50% team for the whole season when up a goal. That was a pretty awful stat for a large portion of the season.

Corsi Percentage: Score State


YTD_corsi_score_game_82

rolling_corsi_score_game_82

There’s a bit more separation in Corsi when looking at tied vs leading by 1. Maybe they didn’t really do much different when up 1 after all, except block more shots.

Fenwick Rates: Score State


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YTD_fenwickagainst_score_game_82

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Presented without comment. And not in a snarky way. There’s just nothing I have left to say about these, except I hope they start shooting more while tied, i.e. the first period.

Corsi Rates: Score State


YTD_corsifor_score_game_82

YTD_corsiagainst_score_game_82

rolling_corsifor_score_game_82

rolling_corsiagainst_score_game_82

It’s a little strange that the Caps actually shoot more when tied vs when down 1.

Summary


YTD_Total_Team_perf_game_82

 

So there you have it. Your 2014-2015 Washington Capitals. I don’t know about you, but I’m excited for the playoffs, and for next season already.

 

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